Fair Isaac’s Credit Scoring Change Will Affect MILLIONS.
Some Good, Some Bad!
They call it the authorized user trick; or at least I did. I have been forecasting for quite some time that
Fair Isaac would eventually fix their software and eliminate the loophole that allows someone to quickly
increase their credit score by having someone with a seasoned credit card add that person to their
credit card as an authorized user.
Here's how it works: The credit score is similar to a camera whereby it takes a snapshot of the
information contained within the credit bureaus database, analyzes the information, and then assigns a
score to it that tries to predict the likelihood of whether or not that person will pay 90 days late or more
on that account over the next two years.
Not all credit scoring software is the same, just like all software products on the market are not the
same. F air Isaac is the Microsoft of credit score providers. Their credit scoring software called “Classic
FICO”, is the standard in the mortgage industry and used to determine whether or not loans get
approved or not. With a range of 300 to 850, this three digit number has statistically proven in the past
whether or not somebody would pay 90 days late or more over the next 24 months with almost
pinpoint accuracy, for example; in the past a person with a 500 credit score has shown a tendency to
pay 90 days late or more within a two‐year period one out of eight times that person in that score range
was given a loan. In contrast, a person with over an 800 credit score has shown the tendency to pay 90
days late or more within a two‐year period only one out of 1292 times. This allows the banks to forecast
how much it will cost them to give a loan to a person based on the applicant's credit score. When the
Banks are armed with the statistical knowledge of whether a loan will go into default based on a
particular credit score, the banks can then crunch numbers even further and determine how much it
cost them to chase the defaulted borrower to collect the money. This is exactly why loan rates vary by
credit score range. To explain this even further and put things in context, if you were a landlord that
rented a cottage to people during the weekend, and one out of eight people that you rented to drove
their motorcycle through the house after running over a skunk, chances are you would charge enough to
cover the cost of getting new carpet every eight times you rented the cottage. But if that same skunk
run scenario only happened once every 25 years, chances are the rental rate would not increase much;
if at all. Whether you're buying new carpet or chasing down delinquent loans, being able to segregate
and predict this cost is an invaluable tool when determining what price to charge for a product or
service whose cost is directly linked to whether or not an event takes place. That event in the mortgage
world is defaulting 90 days late or more in the first 24 months.
The system is not perfect though: Authorized user accounts and the way they are handled by Fair
Isaac's Classic FICO Score, has allowed people to increase their credit scores up to 100 points in less than
30 days. This was made possible due to a design flaw in Fair Isaac's software. When Fair Isaac designed
the credit score, they did this by analyzing one million credit reports over a two‐year period. At the end
of two years they looked and took note of the ones that had a 90 day or more delinquency occur during
that two years. They then separated these people from the others that did not have a 90 day or more
delinquency on the credit report and then proceeded to identify things they all had in common on their
credit reports and use those characteristics in the future to predict whether or not somebody was going
to join the 90 day group of people or the people that were not 90 days delinquent or more based on the
characteristics they identified in each group. While not a perfect system, it is a very good predictor of
whether a person will default by 90 days or more over the next 24 months.
But just like any system there are weak spots and ways to skew those numbers to one's benefit. When
fair Isaac designed the scoring software, one of the things they did not look at or analyze in any way was
the ownership of the account being reported on the credit report. Add to this the fact that the credit
score does not have a memory and you now have two of the three elements needed for the perfect
storm. This third element was whether or not a creditor reports the ownership type of a person that is
not primarily responsible on the credit card but allowed to use it “ the Authorized User” and the perfect
storm occurs when the authorized user is reported to the credit bureaus by the bank. The effect this has
on the score depends on three variables: The amount of time the credit card has been open, the credit
limit of that credit card, and how much money the primary cardholder owes on the credit card in
relation to the credit limit. The older the credit card is, the more of a positive effect it has on the credit
score, the higher the limits coupled with a low debt ratio, the more the positive effect it has on the
credit score.
When the Bank reports the account on the authorized user’s credit report, they report the exact same
information as they report to the primary cardholder's credit report. Given the fact the credit score has
no memory, it has no way of determining that the account was not there yesterday and proceeds to
calculate a score based on an extremely long credit history with a very low debt ratio as in our ideal
example. Somebody with a limited credit history and a high debt ratio will benefit because when an
authorized user account is added to their credit report, this can increase the average age of the credit
file on their credit report dramatically, which is 15% of the credit score, and also reduce their debt ratio
if this credit card being added has a low debt ratio, which amounts to 30% of the factors used to
determine the credit score. Add on a perfect payment history reported on that card, and you just
affected 35% of what determines the credit score, which is “payment history”.
Although this practice has been going on for quite some time, a few companies came out of the
woodwork with a marketable service that catered to consumers that would benefit from the perfect
storm. These companies would recruit people from all over the country that had older credit cards with
low debt ratios and offer them $100‐$300 for each person they added to their credit card as an
authorized user. They would then go and market to consumers with limited credit histories and/or high
revolving debt ratios and offer to have them added as an authorized user on a seasoned trade line for
around $1500 per credit card and pocket the difference. As this practice became more popular, it
wasn't long before the over exposure of this loophole shed light on the flaws of fair Isaac software.
Under pressure from lenders that used Fair Isaac’s software, Fair Isaac made the decision to invest the
money and correct this loophole in the software for good. The correction to their software is fairly
simple: When Fair Isaac takes that snapshot of somebody's credit file, they are going to look at one
extra field that they previously had not looked at when generating the score. That field is the one that
says who is responsible for that account. If the scoring software sees that the person is the primary on
the account, then it will score the report just like it had done before and no change to the credit score
will take place between the old and the new scoring model. This will also hold true if it says that the
account is a joint account. But if they see that the responsibility on that account is as an authorized user
designation, they will completely ignore that entire account when calculating the credit score. It doesn't
matter if the authorized user was added five years ago or yesterday, they will instantly lose the benefits
created, if any, from that account being shown on their credit report. You are going to see many
people's credit scores drop dramatically the second this new software is implemented. On the flip side
you will see some people benefiting because authorized user accounts are not always a good thing to
the person that is the authorized user. Whenever the primary account holder is maxed out on their
credit card, so is the authorized user. Whenever the primary account holder had the account for a short
amount of time, the authorized user’s average age of the credit file is reduced also. And last but not
least, when the primary pays late, the authorized user is late. For those people that are authorized
users on accounts with these characteristics just mentioned, they will receive a credit score boost once
the new scoring criteria is implemented.
Patch one hole, another will follow: There are however shrewd companies already working on the next
best solution to the authorized user loophole. One company for example will give a credit card to
anybody without even checking their credit. This company offers a credit card that can only be used to
purchase their e‐book products. Anybody can get a $5,000 credit limit with this company for around a
$200 fee. The part that caught my attention was the obvious success potential and chances of this
actually lasting when I realized that the cost of goods sold for an e‐book was almost nothing. I also
quickly determined that no matter if the credit limit is $ 5,000 or $500,000, not many people want to
spend more than even $100 on e‐books, zero for me. I would also assume that the best thing this
company would want is that everybody maxes out the $5,000 and not pay so they could actually
attempt to collect even a small portion of these accounts. Given the fact that the monies collected are
basically 100% profit, these companies won’t even lose any sleep if their default rates went through the
roof. This business model is legitimate in the sense that unlike the authorized user loophole, these
accounts are opening on the date the person gets the account, they also satisfy the criteria of being a
legitimate product being sold in commerce coupled with the extension of credit associated with the
marketing and sale of that product. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the purpose behind such an
offering; but then again, in our society, “if the glove doesn't fit you must acquit!” These types of
product offerings are going to increase now that the authorized users reign as king of the credit score
loopholes has come to an end.
Even though you can still benefit the credit score today by having someone add you as an authorized
user to a seasoned account, many lenders have started denying loan applications if there is an
authorized user account on their credit report due to the fact that the credit score may not be an
accurate predictor of risk. The primary person on the account does not get hurt by this because there is
no way to know whether that person added anybody as an authorized user by looking at the credit
report of the primary and therefore that person is not affected in any way now, or in the future when
the software is changed. Due to the fact that the scoring model is changing in a few months coupled
with the fact that lenders are denying applications in some instances if an authorized user account is
present, I would advise that people refrain from getting added as an authorized user immediately since
the benefit will soon be gone and taking advantage of that benefit before it leaves may leave a person
with no loan at all due to rejection from the lender. Whether or not the current exploited practice of
adding people as an authorized user will amount to mortgage fraud remains to be seen. I would be
willing to bet that nobody will be convicted of mortgage fraud when a friend or a family member adds
that person to a credit card in order to boost their credit score, but once you take it a step further and
hire a company offering the service of adding trade lines, and you then pay for that service and get
added to a complete stranger’s credit card that you don’t have access too, it becomes much harder to
defend the position that mortgage fraud is not present.
Written by Edward Jamison Esq.
Creator of
ww.CreditCRM.com|
www.LasVegasGreatHome.com 702-303-3909 www.702HomeMortgage.com www.InvestVegasRealEstate.com www.LasVegasRealEstate.asia
|
Las
Vegas Real Estate HOME Las Vegas MLS Listings Las Vegas Homes Sellers Las Vegas Home Buyers Las Vegas High Rise Condo Relocating to Las Vegas Las Vegas Neighborhoods Investing in Las Vegas Real Estate New Homes List your Home Market Commentary Articles Las Vegas Community Links Contact Me
|